QF_175%
MoroccoMorocco
FranceFrance
France advances 2-1
Morocco's path is survive to 75' and drag France into Bounou/penalties.
model favoriteWorld Cup live: active match, timer, recent results, upcoming fixtures, photos and 3D stadium/matchday experiences.
DataQF watchSpain leads · 100%1 contenders tracked · top model field plus Mexico, Norway, Colombia and Portugal next call—awaiting forecast model score0.163advance Brier · lower is sharper live feedno live matchstandby field1/48 freshness2026-08-13 14:17site freshness · source health
Next World Cup
Road to 2030 🇪🇸 🇵🇹 🇲🇦
Spain · Portugal · Morocco · 100 years of the World Cup
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Estimated kickoff ~Jun 2030 (FIFA to confirm) · tap for the road →
📸 Images of the champions
World Cup Analytics
Stats, calibration, source health, market divergence and the IPE learning loop.
INFRATEK Predictor · bracket v8
Open full predictorProjected final before QF
Public picks frozen before France-Morocco. We choose one upset, price penalties honestly, and score the result after.
R16 closed18-3 trace · Brier 0.161Hits and misses stay public; QF picks freeze before kickoff.
Quarter-finals
QF_3UPSET
BelgiumBelgium
SpainSpain
Belgium advances on penalties after 1-1
Selected upset: Spain is the model side, Belgium is the chaos/transition pick.
upset pickQF_263%
NorwayNorway
EnglandEngland
England advances 2-1
Norway is live through Haaland, but England has the deeper late-game bench.
model favoriteQF_465%
Switz.Switzerland
ArgentinaArgentina
Argentina advances 2-1
Swiss low block can make it ugly; Messi/Dibu still own the high-leverage moments.
model favoriteSemis
SF_156%
FranceFrance
BelgiumBelgium
France advances 2-1
Upset winner Belgium runs into France; French depth and set-piece edge favored in the closeout.
conditional projectionSF_253%
EnglandEngland
ArgentinaArgentina
Argentina advances 2-1
England and Argentina share this half of the bracket — heavyweight semifinal, Argentina the cleaner closeout profile.
conditional projectionFinal
F_1No champion call yet
FranceFrance
ArgentinaArgentina
Projected final: France vs Argentina
No World Cup winner call yet. We freeze finalists now and call champion later.
Served model baseline + dossier audit + football-chaos overlay for penalties, game state, fatigue and tactical volatility. No champion call before semifinals.
WC2026 Analytics
Live intelligence board
Fresh facts, model score, tournament field and source health. Unsourced leaderboards stay locked.
surviving squads only
Tournament field
Active squads
Every dot is a country in the tournament field. Lime is active; muted dots are eliminated or out of the current bracket view.
4848country universe
3232knockout squads
alive1still in the bracket
out47noise removed
qualified active eliminated
Source: standings + bracket/results. Squad status only; player leaderboards require a verified stats source.
Engine score
Calibration board
Settled calls are graded with Brier/log-loss. The pre-kick call is frozen; post-match updates condition the bracket.
Latest settledSF_2 · ENG-ARG 1-2Away advanced · Brier 0.218 · logloss 0.629
Top cup probabilityAudit in progressChampion ranking is hidden until the QF ledger verifies alive teams, fixtures, sources and timestamp.
Next locked forecast—No next match served.
FirewallMarket read-only gapLive facts never mutate locked P(win); every settled call goes to Brier/log-loss.
The scorecard
How our calls are doing
0.163mean advance Brier · 30 settled · lower = sharper
IPE0.163
Seed-chalk0.163
Coin0.250
measured against a coin and the historical seed-chalk prior · computed from the ledger
Live win probability
In-match timeline
🔒 Live win-prob model isn't emitting yet
The in-match model publishes a minute-by-minute curve once it runs. No match live right now.
live/<id>.json · win_probMomentum
Pressure band
🔒 No momentum signal served yet
The pressure band needs the in-match model's momentum signal (or a populated event stream). No match live right now.
live/<id>.json · events / momentumCup odds, over time
Movement
39 snapshots · interval shown beside each current point (static — never animated)
Biggest movement
Who moved since the first snapshot
Are we calibrated?
Reliability curve
9 bins · ECE 0.258 · on the diagonal = perfectly calibrated
Leaderboards pipeline
Stats we can show next
Team match stats partial
Possession, shots, corners and final-score context update when the source carries them.
Top scorers source needed
Player-goal table required. No inferred scorers from captions or clips.
Minutes played source needed
Official lineup/minute logs or a validated stats provider required.
Distance covered source needed
Tracking feed required. Stays gated until a provider serves it.
Market benchmark adapter next
Read-only Polymarket/Kalshi benchmark. No bet UI.
Signals adapter next
Injuries, lineups, weather and venue reports with source timestamps.