worldcup.infratek.ai — 2026 World Cup forecast

Unverified seed. The “market” input is a strength-based proxy until the collection layer lands a vetted odds snapshot. Read the numbers as structurally honest but not yet sourced-final.

First prediction — expect it rough. This is the opening forecast of the run, before any knockout match has informed the model. The intervals are wide on purpose; they narrow as matches are played and the model learns — and you'll be able to watch that happen.

Next match

the pre-match forecast

R32 · next matchforecast · pre-match · ensemble[strength+market] v0.1.0

🇧🇷

Brazil

65%

56%–73%

draw12%8.9%–16%

🇯🇵

Japan

23%

18%–28%

Read: Brazil clearly favored. Each number is a range, not a lock.

🕑 Mon 29 Jun · 16:00 UTC📍 hou · neutral knockout

Who wins the cup?

P(win) · 32 teams · 10,000 sims · interval shown for every team

#	Team	P(win cup)	Read	Interval
1	🇦🇷Argentina	32%	co-favorite	31%–33%
2	🇫🇷France	13%	leading contender	12%–14%
3	🇪🇸Spain	12%	leading contender	12%–13%
4	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	8.4%	in the mix	8.0%–8.9%
5	🇧🇷Brazil	7.9%	in the mix	7.5%–8.3%
6	🇵🇹Portugal	4.5%	outside shot	4.2%–4.8%
7	🇳🇱Netherlands	4.2%	outside shot	3.9%–4.5%
8	🇩🇪Germany	3.7%	outside shot	3.3%–4.0%
9	🇧🇪Belgium	2.1%	outside shot	1.9%–2.4%
10	🇺🇸United States	1.7%	longshot	1.5%–1.9%
11	🇨🇴Colombia	1.7%	longshot	1.5%–1.9%
12	🇲🇽Mexico	1.3%	longshot	1.1%–1.5%
13	🇭🇷Croatia	1.2%	longshot	1.0%–1.4%
14	🇨🇦Canada	1.2%	longshot	1.0%–1.4%
15	🇲🇦Morocco	1.1%	longshot	0.9%–1.3%
16	🇨🇭Switzerland	0.9%	longshot	0.7%–1.0%
17	NOR	0.6%	rank outsider	0.5%–0.7%
18	🇯🇵Japan	0.4%	rank outsider	0.3%–0.5%
19	🇸🇳Senegal	0.4%	rank outsider	0.3%–0.5%
20	🇪🇨Ecuador	0.2%	rank outsider	0.1%–0.3%
21	ALG	0.1%	rank outsider	<0.1%–0.2%
22	🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire	0.1%	rank outsider	<0.1%–0.2%
23	🇦🇺Australia	0.1%	rank outsider	<0.1%–0.2%
24	GHA	0.1%	rank outsider	<0.1%–0.2%
25	SWE	0.1%	rank outsider	<0.1%–0.2%
26	🇦🇹Austria	0.1%	rank outsider	<0.1%–0.1%
27	🇵🇾Paraguay	<0.1%	rank outsider	<0.1%–0.1%
28	BIH	<0.1%	rank outsider	<0.1%–0.1%
29	🇪🇬Egypt	<0.1%	rank outsider	<0.1%–0.1%
30	COD	<0.1%	rank outsider	0%–<0.1%
31	CPV	<0.1%	rank outsider	0%–<0.1%
32	RSA	0%	rank outsider	0%–0%

Road to the final

the bracket shape — results fill in as matches are played

Round of 32 · 32Round of 16 · 16Quarter-finals · 8Semi-finals · 4Final · 2

How this forecast works — and what "calibrated" means

The headline number is P(win the cup): out of many simulated run-throughs of the remaining bracket, the share a team lifts the trophy. It is not a prediction that any one team will win — a 16% favorite is still far likelier to go home than to win it all. That is the point.

The model is an ensemble. A strength model (Elo-style team ratings) gives per-match win/draw/loss odds; a goals model (Dixon–Coles bivariate Poisson) gives scorelines; market-implied odds act as a prior and a benchmark to beat. The blend feeds a Monte-Carlo simulation over the fixed knockout bracket, which tallies how often each team reaches each round and wins the cup.

Every number carries an interval. We sample the model's own parameter uncertainty before simulating, so the range you see is real spread, not decoration. We never publish a point without its band, and we never animate the band — a quivering needle reads as panic; a static range reads as honesty.

"Calibrated" means our 70%s should happen about 70% of the time. Once matches are played we score ourselves on exactly that — Brier score and reliability — and we publish every miss in a public error log, with a one-line cause. The model learns ratings from results as the tournament runs, but its feature weights are tuned on history (past World Cups, Euros, Copas), never on these few games.

Not a betting service. Predictions only. Markets are read-only signal — no betting.